According to Deadline, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is on track for a four-day Christmas opening weekend of around $40 million plus, which is less than The Marvels‘ $46 million three-day opening. That is bad news for the DCEU’s final movie, as The Marvels had the worst debut for a Marvel Studios film and will end its theatrical run as the lowest-grossing MCU movie yet, with only $204 million — according to Box Office Mojo. Despite trailers having teased an exciting story for Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, the movie should be another 2023 DCEU box office disappointment.

Why Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom Might Struggle At The Box Office

A Few Factors Explain The Sequel’s Situation

The poor box office projections for Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom are part of a bigger DC problem. After it was announced that James Gunn and Peter Safran would be replacing the DCEU with the upcoming new DC Universe, audience interest in the final projects of the dying universe dwindled. All of DC’s 2023 movies so far have underperformed at the box office, and the Aquaman sequel seems unable to escape that trend.

Alongside the end of the DCEU was the report that all the actors from 2017’s Justice League will not reprise their roles in the DCU, which includes Jason Momoa not returning as Aquaman. With a DC reboot on the horizon and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom not leading anywhere, the sequel lost a lot of momentum. While there have been no official statements yet about Momoa’s future as Aquaman, rumors about the actor’s DC future also impact the Aquaman sequel’s performance.

Momoa has revealed on multiple occasions that he would love to play Lobo, and with Gunn having already teased the character on social media — which he has done for others who are already cast in the DCU — Momoa playing Lobo is a real possibility. Variety has reported that Momoa is in talks to play Lobo either in Superman: Legacy or another DCU project. Based on the DCEU’s many controversies, the incoming reboot of the franchise, and Momoa being seemingly attached to another role, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom simply had too much riding against it to repeat the original Aquaman‘s historical box office run.