Can Tiger defy the odds and make the cut at the year’s final major?0

The 152nd Open Championship at Royal Troon will mark Tiger Woods’ fifth official PGA Tour start since undergoing season-ending ankle surgery in 2023.

In February, the 48-year-old withdrew midway through his host tournament, the Genesis Invitational, due to illness. He made a record 24th consecutive Masters cut at the hilly Augusta National, then finished last after the weekend. He missed cuts at the PGA Championship and, narrowly, the U.S. Open.

Tiger’s days of consistently contending are long in the past. As he oft-reiterates, his PGA Tour portfolio, parental commitments, and daily physical rehabilitation takes precedence over time on the course.

But there are reasons to be optimistic about his form at Royal Troon. Here are three reasons the 15-time major champion can defy the odds (+174) and play his first Open weekend since (checks notes) … 2018.

🚨Tiger is looking stronger and his swing seems better compared to the last couple of majors. A good sign for the future! pic.twitter.com/Rgh4FpCAtO

— TWLEGION (@TWlegion) July 17, 2024

Why Tiger Woods will make the Open Championship cut

1. Large but mid field

With 156 entrants, the 2024 rendition will feature the largest Open field since 1995.

On the one hand, this could be seen as more competition for a certain 82-time PGA Tour champion. But it’s a top-heavy group, replete with amateurs, past champs, and dozens of golfers ranked outside the top 100 of the Official World Golf Rankings (beyond just the LIV guys, whose results go unrecognized by the OWGR).

Like the PGA Championship, players in the top 70 (plus ties) after the second round will make the cut. The U.S. Open cuts off the top 60, while the Masters carries the top 50 into the weekend.

2. Amenable confines

A dabble in links golf should behoove Tiger Woods.

For one thing, the terrain is relatively flat — especially compared to Riviera, Augusta National, and Valhalla. Tiger, who appears leaner and seemed to get around OK at Pinehurst No. 2, should enjoy an easier physical test.

“I’ve been training a lot better,” he said at his pre-tournament press conference on Tuesday. “We’ve been busting it pretty hard in the gym, which has been good. Body’s been feeling better to be able to do such things, and it translates on being able to hit the ball better.

“Can’t quite stay out there during a practice session as long as I’d like, but I’m able to do some things that I haven’t done all year, which is nice.”

By nature, links golf de-emphasizes power while rewarding craftiness and experience. Tiger — who arrived Sunday for a rare 18-hole practice round — said he needs to “tighten up” his short game, but was otherwise confident he’ll be in form. (He’ll play the first two rounds with Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay.)

“Links golf is very different,” said Tiger. “The heaviness of the air is just different. The ball doesn’t travel as far. … Look at some of the past champions that have been artists in how they’ve been able to maneuver the golf ball and use the ground. This golf course allows you to do that.

“I think the older you get, the less you can carry the golf ball. But over here, you can run the golf ball 100 yards if you get the right wind and the right trajectory.”

Tiger didn’t seem too concerned about landing the narrow green on the iconic 123-yard par-3 8th, the Postage Stamp.

“It’s a very simple hole; just hit the ball on the green.”

🚨Tiger is looking stronger and his swing seems better compared to the last couple of majors. A good sign for the future! pic.twitter.com/Rgh4FpCAtO

— TWLEGION (@TWlegion) July 17, 2024

Take it from Tiger’s former swing coach:

A lot of people thought Augusta was Tiger’s best chance to ever win again, it’s wasn’t, it was always the Open Championship for multiple reasons, he can hit shots like this, slower greens mean fewer 3 putts and no one has more knowledge about playing links golf. Based on what… https://t.co/1ImmrZWVFs

— Hank Haney (@HankHaney) July 15, 2024

The three-time Open winner has fared decently well at Royal Troon. He finished tied for 24th in 1997 and T9 in 2004. He missed the 2016 event with a back injury.

3. Colin Montgomerie

For the first time in a minute, a peer provided the arguable GOAT with timely bulletin board material.

“I hope people remember Tiger as Tiger was, the passion and the charismatic aura around him,” Ryder Cup legend Montgomerie told the Times of London. “There is none of that now. At Pinehurst he did not seem to enjoy a single shot and you think, ‘What the hell is he doing?’ He’s coming to Troon and he won’t enjoy it there either.”

“Aren’t we there? I’d have thought we were past there,” Montgomerie added about Tiger’s time as a contender. “There is a time for all sportsmen to say goodbye but it’s very difficult to tell Tiger it’s time to go. Obviously, he still feels he can win. We are more realistic.”

“These guys only know Tiger Woods missing the cut, and he’s better than that … The best we’ve ever seen.”

Tiger had a vintage response to Montgomerie, who finished runner-up to Tiger at St. Andrews in 2005 and is on the short list of greatest golfers to never win a major.

“As a past champion, I’m exempt until I’m 60. Colin’s not. He’s not a past champion. So he’s not exempt. So he doesn’t get that opportunity to make that decision, I do.”

🗣️ "As a past champion I'm exempt until I'm 60. Colin Montgomerie's not."

⛳️ Tiger Woods has hit back at comments from the veteran Scottish golfer, who had suggested he should retire.#BBCGolf #TheOpen pic.twitter.com/eDQ25OgQXA

— BBC Sport Scotland (@BBCSportScot) July 16, 2024

Spicy! What a convenient opportunity to not prove Monty right.